Marana officials are considering changing how the town measures drought severity, a move that could delay mandatory water restrictions despite Lake Mead sitting at just 31% capacity.

The town's current stages of drought range from one to four and are determined by water levels in Lake Mead, with Water Resources Administrator Jerry Huerstrel proposing during the council's Sept. 15 meeting the inclusion of local aquifer levels and Long Term Storage Credits in the calculation.

Huerstrel said weighing local sources and LTSCs alongside regional sources like Lake Mead would be more reasonable than letting one or the other dictate a response.

The proposed change comes as Lake Mead's current level, measured at 31% capacity in 2025, would trigger a Stage 2 drought warning for Marana under the town's current preparedness plan. The new indicators would likely offset that need.

Under a Stage 2 warning, the current plan would require a 10% reduction in water use for all town properties. That would include limiting overseeding, limiting the use of pools and decorative fountains, limiting excessive water use for cleaning driveways or cars, and limiting irrigation to two days a week between sunset and sunrise.

Town officials are concerned they wouldn't be able to enforce these requirements, though changing how drought is measured doesn't eliminate the underlying water demand.

According to charts presented at the meeting, expected water demand will outpace expected growth despite water recycling efforts and new deals with other providers. The town's Long Term Storage Credits would be fully used up by 2043.

“We feel like we are good for the next few years,” Huerstrel said.

But he expressed uncertainty beyond 2028, saying future rates will depend on the stability of regional watersheds like Lake Mead.

“As we all know, there's not a shortage of water, there's a shortage of cheap water,” said Councilmember Patrick Cavanaugh.

Both Cavanaugh and Huerstrel said Marana's efforts to recharge the local aquifer over the past several decades have shown a noticeable increase in groundwater capacity, making it reasonable in the short term to adjust the calculations to provide more time before a Stage 2 warning is issued.

The council also discussed development through the town's public works department, saying 34 permits were issued as of September, a decrease from previous months.

Councilmember Patti Comerford voiced concerns about a new Shamrock delivery center on Tangerine Road.

“My concern is traffic,” Comerford said.

Despite assumptions that Shamrock will schedule deliveries to avoid peak traffic hours, Comerford's concerns remained.

“My biggest fear is the traffic back-up that's on the freeway,” Comerford said. “I know that the Town of Marana has no control over that. We don't have control over ADOT or the railroads,... but I want to be able to come back to the community and say I'm going to call ADOT every day. Every time I run into a problem at Marana Road or at Tangerine, I'm going to say, ‘Does someone have to die before you do something.'”

Council members also discussed the town's receipt of a Triple-A bond rating, meaning it has an exceptionally strong capacity to repay debts and a minimal risk of default. Only five other municipalities in Arizona hold that rating.

Quentin Agnello is a University of Arizona alum and freelance journalist in Tucson. Contact him at qsagnello@gmail.com.

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