TUSD's superintendent says declining enrollment and falling birth rates have pushed the district to the end of its runway, with a committee now weighing which schools to consolidate.

Superintendent Gabriel Trujillo presented his report to the governing board Sept. 8, along with recent enrollment data that shows a decrease in Pima County births and a steady decline in enrollment.

“Overall, our membership is down just … a little over a thousand … year-over-year, which results in a 2.8% decline,” said data analyst David Scott. “The one grade level that really stands out is kindergarten with a decline of 13.3%.”

TUSD's kindergarten enrollment has tracked closely with falling birth rates in the county, dropping from roughly 13,000 students on day 10 of the 2009-10 school year to just under 10,000 in 2026-27.

Pima County public school enrollment peaked in 2006-07 and has declined every year since, with 9,500 fewer students enrolled in 2024-25 than at its peak, while charter school enrollment grew by 9,200 students over the same period, according to district data presented at the meeting.

Scott said membership is how the state calculates school funding: students in grades one through 12 count as one, while preschool and kindergarten students count as one-half, since the state only funds half a day of kindergarten.

“Membership can be averaged over time and our funding is based on the average of that membership over the first 100 days,” Scott said.

TUSD's Reconfiguration Committee and a Strategic Facility Planning Task Force have been tasked with assisting the district in implementing its consolidation plan. Members of the Reconfiguration Committee, whose identities were previously withheld, include six parents, five educators and school representatives, 10 local government representatives, seven community members and three business and union leaders, according to information the district posted.

During an Aug. 29 meeting, the committee discussed data surrounding enrollment trends within TUSD and Pima County, school-by-school enrollment, budget information and facility use within the district.

“Even under an equal funding formula, some campuses consistently run a surplus relative to their operating costs, while others run a structural deficit,” according to the committee's presentation to TUSD's board. “Fixed costs (building operations, minimum staffing levels) exceed what enrollment-based funding brings in.”

The district's presentation also pointed to the state's override tax levy sunset as a factor putting a deadline on the decision, along with a review showing some schools are effectively subsidizing others under the current funding model.

The district protected school budgets as long as possible, but that's no longer sustainable.

“The question isn't whether change must happen. The question is how we design that change so that TUSD schools can successfully serve Tucson students in a sustainable, high-quality, and economically responsible way far into the future,” according to presentation materials.

As the plan evolves, the committee hopes to discuss consolidation with community members during interactive meetings Sept. 21, Sept. 23 and Sept. 26. More information about the meetings can be found on TUSD's website.

TUSD is in the third year of what Trujillo described as a major instructional initiative, with the current curriculum spanning 2024 to the present.

The current phase focuses on endurance by “sustaining and deepening instructional quality across the district.” The goal is to build lasting change and remain accountable to the families the district serves.

Assistant Superintendent of Curriculum and Instruction Flori Huitt provided a curriculum update, outlining the curriculum's priorities: high-quality instruction, regularly collaborating Professional Learning Communities and a board-adopted curriculum for students.

“We do review implementation of our curriculum and making sure that we know what's being taught and learned,” Huitt said. “This matters because consistent access to grade-level curriculum, it really is a matter of equity. Ensuring that a student has the opportunity to learn and it shouldn't depend on which classroom and what school they're in. It should really be high quality across our school district.”

Nya Belcastro is a University of Arizona student and Tucson Spotlight intern. Contact her at nya2005@arizona.edu.

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